Study on Carbon Emission Drivers and Carbon Peak Forecasting in Yunnan Province

Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality was currently an important strategy in China, and Yunnan Province would continue to vigorously develop industrial industries during 2021-2025, which would bring great challenges to achieving carbon peak by 2030. In this context, this study built a ridge regression-STIRPAT model between carbon emissions and factors such as per capita GDP, energy consumption per unit of GDP, population size, the proportion of industry in GDP, primary electricity proportion,urbanization rate, etc., and used Monte Carlo method to simulate the carbon peak situation in Yunnan Province in 2030. The results showed that the constructed ridge regression STIRPAT model could well describe the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and various influencing factors in Yunnan Province, with a prediction deviation of around 5% for many years. After 2025, the proportion of industry in GDP would become the key factor affecting the carbon peak of Yunnan Province in 2030. After 2025, if the proportion of industry was moderately reduced, the carbon peak could basically be achieved in 2030(the probability is 95.62%), with a carbon peak of about 242 million tons.