Research on the Synergistic Effect and Driving Factors of Pollution and Carbon Reduction in Zigong City Based on a Long-Term Time Series

Based on carbon emission and socio-economic data from Zigong City from 2008 to 2022, this study investigates the temporal evolution of the synergistic effect between pollution and carbon reduction using a coupling coordination degree model. Furthermore, a Tobit model is employed to explore the driving factors. The results indicate that the coordination degree can be divided into three stages: a recession and imbalance stage(2008—2011), a transition and development stage(2012—2015), and a high coordination stage(2016—2022). Throughout this period, the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction in Zigong City has been continuously enhanced, with the interaction between the two systems steadily strengthening. Urbanization level, energy consumption, and industrial development are significant factors influencing the coupling coordination degree. Among these, urbanization level is a positive driving factor, whereas energy consumption and industrial development are negative factors. Overall, Zigong City exhibits a strong synergistic effect in pollution and carbon reduction, demonstrating a clear trend toward green development.