Dynamic Scenario Study of Technological Innovation Supporting Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in Xi'an: Based on Generalized Divisia Index Method

Technological innovation plays a key role in supporting the "dual-carbon" goal, and cities are the main domain for implementing carbon emission reduction. Based on the analysis of the influence mechanism of technological innovation on carbon emission, the paper decomposed the influencing factors of carbon emission based on generalized Divisia index method(GDIM). The baseline development, green development, and technology breakthrough scenarios were set up and simulated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that technological innovation had a "dual effect" on carbon emissions. Technological investment scale was the primary factor promoting an increase, while technological investment efficiency was the primary factor promoting a decrease, and technological investment intensity exhibited an alternating effect of promoting both an increase and a decrease. Under the baseline development scenario and the green development scenario, Xi'an was unable to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets as scheduled. Under the technological breakthrough scenario, carbon peaking could be achieved between 2028 and 2029. However, it was necessary to rely on the national carbon trading market to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060, with the carbon trading volume estimated to be approximately 2538.81～3015.41×10⁴ tons.