Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Neutrality Deviation in China's Provincial Crop Industry

The article first constructed the carbon neutrality deviation degree and measured the degree of carbon neutrality in China's provincial planting industry through carbon emission and carbon absorption coefficient methods. DagumGini coefficient and Kernel density estimation were used to reveal regional differences and dynamic evolution. The results showed that the carbon neutrality deviation degree in China's planting industry was increasing and had significant spatial heterogeneity. By 2021, except Beijing, Fujian, Zhejiang, Hainan and Xizang, where the deviation degree of carbon neutrality was less than 0, carbon neutrality had not been achieved, and other regions have achieved carbon neutrality. Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Henan belong to high carbon neutrality, while Shanghai, Tianjin, Qinghai, and Ningxia belong to low-carbon neutrality. The relative difference in carbon neutrality deviation showed a fluctuating increasing trend. The relative difference in carbon neutrality between the main grain sales areas and the balanced production and sales areas has widened, while the changes in the main grain production areas were relatively small. The relative differences between regions also fluctuated and increased, and the regional differences were the main reason for the differences in carbon neutrality deviation in agriculture. The overall deviation of carbon neutrality in the planting industry showed the characteristics of "absolute level increasing, dispersion degree expansion, and no obvious polarization". The nuclear density curves of the three regions were different, but all have obvious right tail phenomenon