Study on Green and Low-carbon Development Path of Hunan Province based on Decoupling Index and LMDI Model

Based on the 2009—2019 energy balance sheet of Hunan Province, the decoupling index and LMDI model were combined to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of the production-consumption system in Hunan Province, as well as the five paths(nine sub-paths) of carbon emissions. The research found that the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions of the residential sector was 8.8 times that of the industrial sector. The production sector was in a state of ‘decoupling' at 80% of the time,and the residential sector was in a state of ‘negative decoupling' at 50% of the time. The carbon emission of Hunan province in 2019 increased by 46.743 million tons compared with that of 2009. From the perspective of the effect path, economic activities contributed the most to the increase of emissions and the most to the reduction of energy intensity, but there was heterogeneity among the sub-paths; From the perspective of sectoral path, transportation,storage, postal and urban residential sectors were the main path to increase emissions, while industry was the only path to reduce emissions. Optimizing industrial structure and energy structure and guiding green consumption would be the necessary path for the future green and low-carbon development of Hunan Province. Industry,transportation, storage, postal service and urban residents could be the key departments of carbon dioxide emission reduction and control in Hunan Province.