Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation in Yunnan from 2023 to 2060 based on CMIP6 model

Five models in the CMIP6 series were selected for better simulation effect in Yunnan, and the changes of temperature and precipitation in Yunnan during 2023—2060 were predicted under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that the regional mean temperature in Yunnan indicated an increasing trend under the three emission scenarios. Under the three emission scenarios from 2023 to 2030, the temperature increase of eastern Yunnan would be greater than that of central and western Yunnan.The decreasing water in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed an increasing trend, while the decreasing water in SSP2-4.5scenarios showed a decreasing trend. Under the scenario of SSP1-2.6, the western region would have the most obvious decrease in precipitation during 2023-2030, and the northeast and southwest China would have the most obvious increase in precipitation during 2031-2060. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, precipitation in western Yunnan decreased from 2023 to 2030, precipitation in eastern Yunnan increased, and precipitation in north-central and northwestern Yunnan would decrease from 2031 to 2060. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the precipitation in northwest Yunnan would decrease from 2023 to 2060, but would increase in other areas.