安徽农业碳排放与农业经济关系初析

Preliminary Analysis of the Relationship between Agricultural Carbon Emission and Agricultural Economy in Anhui

  • 摘要: 为促进安徽省农业低碳发展,在种植业和养殖业共10类碳源的基础上,测算了1999—2019年全省农业碳排放量,同时运用Tapio脱钩模型对安徽农业碳排放与农业经济的关系进行了研究。结果表明,1999—2019年全省农业碳排放总量变化不大,但经历了持续上升、稳步下降、稳步上升、缓慢下降的过程;种植业和养殖业碳排放强度均呈下降趋势,年均降幅分别为3.04%和3.80%;种植业碳排放量占比呈上升趋势,养殖业碳排放量占比呈下降趋势。全省农业碳排放与农业经济脱钩弹性系数为-10.7866~0.6517,先后经历了波动(1999—2003年)、强脱钩(2003—2007年)、弱脱钩(2007—2014年)、强脱钩(2014—2019年)几个阶段。农业经济增长与环境之间的矛盾有所缓和,绿色低碳的农业发展之路越走越稳。

     

    Abstract: To promote low carbon agriculture development in Anhui Province, the agricultural carbon emissions from 1999 to 2019 were calculated based on ten carbon sources of planting industry and breeding industry. In addition, the relationship between agricultural emission and agricultural economy were studied using Tapio decoupling model. The results showed that the agricultural carbon emission had no significant change from 1999to 2019 in Anhui. However emission had gone through continuing upgrade, stable decline, stable upgrade and slow decline stages. The carbon emission intensities of planting industry and breeding industry indicated a declining trend and the annual declining ratio were 3.04% and 3.80%, respectively. The percentage of planting industry carbon emission and breeding industry carbon emission had the upgrading and declining trend respectively. The decoupling elastic coefficients of agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economy were between-10.7866and 0.6517. The decoupling type had gone through four stages from 1999 to 2019, namely fluctuating(1999—2003), strong decoupling(2003—2007), weak decoupling(2007—2014) and strong decoupling(2014—2019).The contradiction between agricultural economy increase and environment was alleviating. The road of green and low carbon agricultural development was becoming more and more stable.

     

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