Abstract: In this paper, a statistical analysis on the historical data of the response of cosmic rays between year 2008 and 2011 in Yunnan province has been made. Combining with theoretical calculation, the variation rule and discrepancy have been discussed. Based on the recommended formula of standard, a modified formula aimed at the Yunnan plateau has been provided in this paper. Based on the modified formula, a prediction on the response of cosmic rays of part plateau lake in Yunnan province between 2019 and 2021 has been made. Compared with the measurements in Qili Lake, Tonghai in 2019 and 2020, and Dianchi Lake, Kunming in 2021, the prediction has good consistent with the measured results.