大气环境中PM2.5浓度预测研究

Study on PM2.5 Concentration Forecast in Air

  • 摘要: 为探究大气环境PM2.5浓度预测方法的适用性与准确性,本文基于大气环境中PM2.5浓度与温度、降雨量气象要素的相关关系,建立线性回归与BP神经网络预测模型,对比分析两种模型PM2.5浓度的预测效果。结果表明:在冬季时PM2.5浓度高于夏季,呈现出大气环境中温度越低、浓度水平越高的的趋势,且当日降雨量超过一定阈值时,有利于PM2.5浓度的稀释。线性回归与BP神经网络模型预测结果存在差异性,线性回归模型预测结果的相对误差均低于30%,整体预测效果优于神经网络模型,在样本数据量较少时采用线性回归预测模型,预测结果的可靠性和准确性更优。

     

    Abstract: In order to explore the applicability and accuracy of PM2.5 concentration prediction method in atmospheric environment,this paper established linear regression and BP neural network prediction models,and compared and analyzed the prediction effect of the two models on PM2.5concentration based on the correlation between PM2.5 concentration in atmospheric environment and meteorological factors such as temperature and rainfall.The results showed that the PM2.5 concentration in winter was higher than that in summer,indicating a trend that the lower the atmospheric temperature,the higher the concentration level.When the daily rainfall exceeds a certain threshold,it is conducive to the dilution of PM2.5 concentration.There were differences in the prediction results between linear regression and BP neural network model.The relative errors of linear regression model were both lower than 30%.The overall prediction effect was better than that of neural network model.When linear regression prediction model was used with a small amount of sample data,the reliability and accuracy of prediction results became better.

     

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