广西碳排放时空演变特征与影响因素分析——基于14个地级市面板数据

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Guangxi Based on Panel Data from 14 Prefecture-level Cities

  • 摘要: 基于2011—2021年广西14个地级市面板数据,分析广西碳排放量的时间趋势和空间分布变化,并运用莫兰指数对14个地级市碳排量进行时空特征剖析;同时,构建个体固定效应模型,分析广西14个地级市碳排放量的影响因素。结果发现,2011—2021年广西碳排放整体呈现增长态势,“十三五”时期空间分布呈“四周较高”的新格局,碳排放局部空间集聚效应经历了从分散到集聚再到分散的过程。城镇化率和绿色创新技术对广西碳排放量具有显著的正向影响,公路密度、第一产业增加值、固定资产投资、能源强度影响次之,第二产业增加值则具有弱负向影响。最后,依据实证分析结果,就广西如何控制与减少碳排放量给出相关建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on the panel data of 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi from 2011 to 2021, this paper analyzed the temporal trend and spatial distribution changes of carbon emissions in Guangxi, and examined the spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions in 14 prefecture-level cities by using the Moran index. At the same time, an individual fixed effect model was constructed to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions in 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi. The results showed that carbon emissions in Guangxi showed an overall growth trend from 2011 to 2021, and the spatial distribution demonstrated a new pattern of "higher around" during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and the local spatial agglomeration effect of carbon emissions experienced a process from decentralization to agglomeration and then to decentralization. Urbanization rate and green innovation technology have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions in Guangxi, followed by highway density, added value of the primary industry, investment in fixed assets and energy intensity, and the added value of the secondary industry has a weak negative impact. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, relevant suggestions were given on how to control and reduce carbon emissions in Guangxi.

     

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