广西北部湾经济区城市韧性评估及其障碍因素分析

Assessment of Urban Resilience in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and Analysis of Its Obstacles

  • 摘要: 为综合评估广西北部湾经济区城市韧性水平并识别其主要障碍因素,本文基于2010—2022年南宁市、钦州市、北海市和防城港市的面板数据,构建了涵盖经济、社会、生态和基础设施四个维度的城市韧性评价指标体系。利用熵权法和TOPSIS法评估城市韧性水平,并运用障碍度模型识别主要障碍因素。结果表明:研究期内广西北部湾经济区各城市的韧性发展存在显著差异,韧性水平由高到低依次为南宁市>钦州市>北海市>防城港市;准则层障碍度排序为设施韧性>经济韧性>社会韧性>生态韧性;区域发展的主要障碍因子包括普通高等学校在校学生数、互联网用户数和电信业务总量等。

     

    Abstract: To comprehensively assess the level of urban resilience in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and identify its main obstacle factors, this study constructs an urban resilience evaluation index system encompassing four dimensions—economy, society, ecology, and infrastructure—based on panel data from Nanning, Qinzhou, Beihai, and Fangchenggang cities from 2010 to 2022. The entropy weight method and the TOPSIS method are used to assess the urban resilience levels, and the obstacle degree model is employed to identify the primary obstacle factors. The results show that there are significant disparities in the resilience development of cities within the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone during the study period, with the resilience levels ranking from high to low as Nanning > Qinzhou > Beihai > Fangchenggang. The ranking of obstacle degrees at the criterion layer is facility resilience > economic resilience > social resilience > ecological resilience. The main obstacle factors hindering regional development include the number of students enrolled in regular higher education institutions, the number of internet users, and the total volume of telecommunications services.

     

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