基于长时间序列的自贡市减污降碳协同效应及驱动因素研究

Research on the Synergistic Effect and Driving Factors of Pollution and Carbon Reduction in Zigong City Based on a Long-Term Time Series

  • 摘要: 基于2008—2022年自贡市的碳排放和社会经济数据,利用耦合协调度模型,研究了自贡市减污降碳协调耦合效应的时序演变,运用Tobit模型,探究了自贡市减污降碳的驱动因素。结果表明,自贡市减污降碳耦合协调度水平可分为三个阶段:衰退和失调阶段(2008—2011年)、过渡和发展阶段(2012—2015年)、高度协调阶段(2016—2022年)。自贡市的减污降碳协同效应不断提升,两系统的相互作用持续加强。城镇化水平、能源消费和工业发展是影响自贡市减污降碳协调耦合度的重要因素,其中,城镇化水平为正向影响因素,能源消费和工业发展是负向影响因素。总体来看,自贡市减污降碳协同效应较强,绿色发展趋势明显。

     

    Abstract: Based on carbon emission and socio-economic data from Zigong City from 2008 to 2022, this study investigates the temporal evolution of the synergistic effect between pollution and carbon reduction using a coupling coordination degree model. Furthermore, a Tobit model is employed to explore the driving factors. The results indicate that the coordination degree can be divided into three stages: a recession and imbalance stage(2008—2011), a transition and development stage(2012—2015), and a high coordination stage(2016—2022). Throughout this period, the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction in Zigong City has been continuously enhanced, with the interaction between the two systems steadily strengthening. Urbanization level, energy consumption, and industrial development are significant factors influencing the coupling coordination degree. Among these, urbanization level is a positive driving factor, whereas energy consumption and industrial development are negative factors. Overall, Zigong City exhibits a strong synergistic effect in pollution and carbon reduction, demonstrating a clear trend toward green development.

     

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