牛栏江流域水质时空变化及其受土地利用的影响

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality and the Impact from Land Use in the Niulanjiang River Basin

  • 摘要: 以牛栏江流域为研究区,基于水质监测和土地利用类型数据,利用综合水质污染指数、最优地理探测器模型,研究了流域水质时空变化特征,揭示了牛栏江流域土地利用格局与水质的响应关系。结果表明:①相较于旱季,牛栏江流域在雨季的水质污染更为严重,且污染较为严重的区域主要集中在支流,其中总磷(TP)是对水质污染贡献最大的因素。②牛栏江流域的水质主要受耕地密度的影响,同时,林地占比、建设用地密度、多样性指数以及草地占比等因素也对水质有着重要影响。尽管季节变化会影响多数因子的解释度,但耕地密度作为关键因子的作用始终未变。③研究区域的水质综合污染程度并非由单一因子决定,而是受多个因子交互作用的影响。这些交互作用在雨季和旱季均显示出对水质污染程度的高解释力,多数情况下超过了单一因子的作用。④为改善牛栏江流域水质,建议加强监测管理,严控TP排放,优化土地利用,保护生态资源,研究季节影响,并建立综合管理体系,制定针对性措施。

     

    Abstract: Taking the Niulanjiang River basin as the study area, this research analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of water quality and revealed the response relationship between land use patterns and water quality in the Niulanjiang River basin using comprehensive water quality pollution indices and the optimal geographical detector model based on water quality monitoring and land use type data. The results showed that compared to the dry season, water pollution in the Niulanjiang River Basin was more severe during the wet season, with heavily polluted areas mainly concentrated in tributaries, and total phosphorus(TP) being the most significant contributor to water pollution. Water quality in the Niulanjiang River basin was primarily affected by the density of farmland, while factors such as the proportion of forestland, the density of construction land, diversity indices, and the proportion of grassland also had important impacts on water quality. Although seasonal variations could affect the explanatory power of most factors, the role of farmland density as a key factor remained unchanged. The overall pollution level of water quality in the study area was not determined by a single factor but influenced by the interaction of multiple factors. These interactions demonstrated high explanatory power for the degree of water pollution both in the wet and dry seasons, often exceeding the influence of individual factors. To improve water quality in the Niulanjiang River basin, it was recommended to strengthen monitoring and management, strictly control TP emissions, optimize land use, protect ecological resources, study seasonal impacts, establish a comprehensive management system, and formulate targeted measures.

     

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