基于随机森林算法的城市形态对热环境影响作用研究——以广州市中心地区为例

Research on the Effect of Urban Form on Thermal Environment Based on Random Forest Algorithm: A Case Study of the Central Area of Guangzhou

  • 摘要: 近年来,已有研究表明城市形态对热环境的影响作用较为显著,但从城市空间结构角度进行讨论的研究较少。为评估城市形态特征对地表温度的相对重要性和相互影响作用,以广州中心地区为研究范围,划分为500 m及1000 m边长网格基本单元,采用随机森林回归模型在不同的网格尺度上对10种影响因子进行量化,深度分析水体、绿地和建筑等指标对城市热环境的影响作用规律。结果表明,城市形态指标对地表温度的影响大小和方向随着季节和观测尺度的变化而变化。建筑密度、单位水体面积、单位植被面积、建筑平均高度是4个最重要的影响因素。建筑形态、水体和绿地对地表温度变化具有主导性影响。建筑密度对地表温度有明显的正向作用,建筑平均高度与地表温度呈波动相关。城市绿地和水体表现出较强的冷却效果,这一特点在夏季尤为明显。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, some studies have shown that the influence of urban form on the thermal environment was more significant, but there were few studies that discussed it from the perspective of urban spatial structure. In order to evaluate the relative importance and mutual influence of urban morphological characteristics on surface temperature,this paper took the central area of Guangzhou as the research area, and selected the central 10 km area to divide it into basic units of different side length grids. The random forest regression model was used in different grids. Ten influencing factors were quantified on the grid scale, and the influence laws of water bodies, green spaces and buildings on the urban thermal environment were analyzed in depth. The results showed that the magnitude and direction of the impact of urban morphology indicators on surface temperature varied with seasons and observational scales. Building density, unit water area, unit vegetation area, and average building height were the 4 most important influencing factors, while factors such as sidewalk density and points of interest were less correlated with changes in surface temperature. Building form,water body and green space have dominant influences on surface temperature changes. Building density had an obvious positive effect on surface temperature, and the average height of buildings fluctuates with surface temperature. Urban green spaces and water bodies indicated a strong cooling effect, especially in summer.

     

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