基于大数据的空气质量分析与预测——以天津市为例

Air Quality Analysis and Prediction Based on Big Data: A Case Study of Tianjin

  • 摘要: 选取天津市2018年1月1日—2024年4月20日的空气质量指数(AQI)为数据基础进行数据分析,采用高斯朴素贝叶斯模型对空气质量指数等级进行预测。结果表明高斯朴素贝叶斯模型具有较强的预测能力,未来二十天的空气质量指数在50~150,准确率达到85%,并且PM10和PM2.5在天津的浓度波动明显,目前PM2.5是影响空气质量分类的关键因素。

     

    Abstract: In this study, air quality data from Tianjin spanning the period from January 1, 2018, to April 20, 2024, were analyzed. A Gaussian Naive Bayes model was employed to predict the classification levels of the Air Quality Index(AQI). The results demonstrate that the Gaussian Naive Bayes model possesses robust predictive capabilities. The model predicted that the AQI for the subsequent twenty days would range between 50 and 150, achieving a prediction accuracy of 85%. Furthermore, the analysis revealed significant fluctuations in the concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in Tianjin. Currently, PM2.5 is identified as the critical factor influencing air quality classification.

     

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