2011—2020年南通市环境空气质量的变化特征及社会经济影响因素研究

Research on the Changing Characteristics of Air Quality and Its Influencing Factors of Social Economy in Nantong from 2011 to 2020

  • 摘要: 运用个体固定效应面板模型对南通市2011—2020年7个县市区的环境空气质量的社会经济影响因素进行分析,并通过不同工业发展程度下的面板回归模型结果进行比较,得出随着工业发展程度的不同,环境空气质量的影响因素具有明显的差异。当工业发展程度较低时,工业烟粉尘排放量对环境空气质量产生显著负向作用,人均GDP的增长率也带来了环境空气质量的下降。当工业发展程度较高时,综合能源消费量对环境空气质量产生负向影响,第二产业比重、人均地区生产总值的增长率对环境空气质量产生正向影响。该模型为“十四五”南通市大气污染防治攻坚工作提供了更为精准的防治方向。

     

    Abstract: Individual fixed effect panel models were used to analyze the socio-economic influencing factors of the air quality of seven counties in Nantong City from 2011 to 2020. The results of the panel regression models were compared under different industrial developmental levels. The results showed that the influencing factors of air quality have obvious differences among different levels of industrial development. When the level of industrial development was low, industrial smoke and dust emissions had a significant negative effect on air quality, as same as the growth rate of per capita GDP. When the level of industrial development was high, the comprehensive energy consumption had a negative impact on the air quality, while the proportion of the secondary industry and the growth rate of the per capita GDP had a positive impact on the air quality. These models would provide more accurate prevention and control directions for the air pollution prevention in Nantong during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

     

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