昆明市PM2.5时空变化规律及其预测模型研究

Study on the Spatio-temporal Variation and Prediction Model of PM2.5 in Kunming

  • 摘要: 以昆明市主城区2019年1—12月6个环境空气质量自动监测站的环境和气象数据为基础,利用ArcGIS空间分析功能和数理统计方法,探讨昆明市PM2.5浓度的时空分布规律,建立PM2.5浓度与各监测参数的预测模型。研究表明:在月份上,4月各站点除龙泉镇外PM2.5浓度均达到一年中的最大值,7月出现最低值;各站点在6—11月浓度较低,12—5月相对较高;在季节上,秋季PM2.5的浓度较低,冬季、春季和夏季浓度较高;在空间分布上,五华区和西山区PM2.5的浓度较高,盘龙区、官渡区和呈贡区的浓度相对较低;金鼎山、碧鸡广场、龙泉镇和呈贡新区站点的预测模型拟合效果较好,而官渡区博物馆和东风东路站点的拟合程度相对较差。

     

    Abstract: Based on the environmental and meteorological data of 6 automatic ambient air quality monitoring stations in the main urban area of Kunming from January to December 2019, the temporal and spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentration in Kunming was discussed by using the function of ArcGIS spatial analysis and mathematical statistics method, and the prediction model of PM2.5 concentration and monitoring parameters was established. The results showed that in April, the concentration of PM2.5 at all stations except Longquan Town reached the maximum value in a year, and the lowest value appeared in July; the concentration at each station was low from June to November and relatively high from December to May. As for season, the concentration of PM2.5 was lower in autumn and higher in winter, spring and summer. In terms of spatial distribution, the concentration of PM2.5 in Wuhua District and Xishan District was high, while the concentration in Panlong District, Guandu District and Chenggong District was relatively low. The prediction models of the stations in Jindingshan, Biji Square, Longquan Town and Chenggong New Area have good fitting effect, while the fitting degree of Guandu District Museum and Dongfeng East Road was relatively poor.

     

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