滇池流域气候变化特征及与水环境关系研究

Characteristics of Climate Change in the Dianchi Lake Basin and Its Relationship with the Water Environment

  • 摘要: 利用滇池流域及周边昆明、呈贡、晋宁、安宁、太华山、嵩明6个国家级气象观测站点1961-2024年气象资料以及151个自动气象站资料、水环境监测资料,对滇池流域近64 a气温、降水变化趋势、空间分布特征,以及气象要素与水环境关系进行分析。结果表明:近64 a滇池流域年平均气温属于上升趋势, 20世纪90年代后增温趋势明显,冬季(12月-次年2月)对增温贡献最大,夏季(6-8月)气温变幅最小;年降水量呈小幅减少趋势,雨季(5-10月)降水减少明显,干季(11月-次年4月)变化较小;年平均气温总体呈现围绕滇池向南北两侧降低的趋势,气温大值区位于主城区域;年降水空间分布呈北多南少的特点。气温与水温呈显著正相关,水温、气温、降水量与高锰酸盐指数、叶绿素a及综合营养状态指数相关性较好,影响较大;气温、降水变化将直接或间接影响滇池水质的变化。

     

    Abstract: Based on meteorological data from six national meteorological observation stations (Kunming, Chenggong, Jinning, Anning, Taihua Mountain, and Songming) in and around the Dianchi Lake Basin from 1961 to 2024, alongside data from 151 automatic weather stations and water environment monitoring records, this study analyzes the variation trends and spatial distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the Dianchi Lake Basin over the past 64 years, as well as the relationship between meteorological elements and the water environment. The results indicate that the annual average temperature in the Dianchi Lake Basin has exhibited an upward trend over the past 64 years, with a significant warming trend observed since the 1990s. Winter (December to February of the following year) contributed the most to this warming, while summer (June to August) experienced the smallest temperature fluctuations. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, characterized by a significant reduction during the rainy season (May to October) and minor changes during the dry season (November to April of the following year). Spatially, the annual average temperature generally decreases from the Dianchi Lake area towards the northern and southern regions, with the highest temperature zone located in the main urban area; meanwhile, the spatial distribution of annual precipitation is characterized by higher amounts in the north and lower amounts in the south. Air temperature is significantly and positively correlated with water temperature. Furthermore, water temperature, air temperature, and precipitation are strongly correlated with the permanganate index, chlorophyll-a, and the comprehensive trophic state index, exerting a substantial impact. Changes in air temperature and precipitation will directly or indirectly affect the water quality of Dianchi Lake.

     

/

返回文章
返回