中国省域种植业碳中和偏离度地区差异及动态演进

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Neutrality Deviation in China's Provincial Crop Industry

  • 摘要: 首次构建了碳中和偏离度,通过碳排放和碳吸收系数法对中国省域种植业碳中和程度进行测度,并采用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel核密度估计揭示其区域差异及动态演进。结果表明:①中国种植业碳中和偏离度呈增长态势,具有明显空间异质性;②截至2021年,除北京、福建、浙江、海南、西藏5个地区碳中和偏离度<0,未实现碳中和,其余地区均实现了碳中和;黑龙江、山东、河南属于高碳中和,上海、天津、青海、宁夏属于低碳中和;③碳中和偏离度相对差距呈波动式增加趋势;粮食主销区和产销平衡区种植业碳中和相对差异扩大,粮食主产区变化较小;区域间相对差异亦波动式增加,地区间差距是造成种植业碳中和偏离度差异的主要原因;④种植业碳中和偏离度整体表现出“绝对水平上升,离散程度扩大,无明显极化”的特征,三大区域核密度曲线各不相同,但均有明显的右拖尾现象。

     

    Abstract: The article first constructed the carbon neutrality deviation degree and measured the degree of carbon neutrality in China's provincial planting industry through carbon emission and carbon absorption coefficient methods. DagumGini coefficient and Kernel density estimation were used to reveal regional differences and dynamic evolution. The results showed that the carbon neutrality deviation degree in China's planting industry was increasing and had significant spatial heterogeneity. By 2021, except Beijing, Fujian, Zhejiang, Hainan and Xizang, where the deviation degree of carbon neutrality was less than 0, carbon neutrality had not been achieved, and other regions have achieved carbon neutrality. Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Henan belong to high carbon neutrality, while Shanghai, Tianjin, Qinghai, and Ningxia belong to low-carbon neutrality. The relative difference in carbon neutrality deviation showed a fluctuating increasing trend. The relative difference in carbon neutrality between the main grain sales areas and the balanced production and sales areas has widened, while the changes in the main grain production areas were relatively small. The relative differences between regions also fluctuated and increased, and the regional differences were the main reason for the differences in carbon neutrality deviation in agriculture. The overall deviation of carbon neutrality in the planting industry showed the characteristics of "absolute level increasing, dispersion degree expansion, and no obvious polarization". The nuclear density curves of the three regions were different, but all have obvious right tail phenomenon

     

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