辽宁省农业碳排放的时空特征及公平性分析

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Fairness Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Liaoning Province

  • 摘要: 在对辽宁省14个地级市2012—2021年农业碳排放量测算的基础上分析其时空特征,基于农业碳排放的生态承载力系数与经济贡献系数对碳排放公平性进行评价,最后利用地理探测器分析影响农业碳排放强度的主要因素。结果表明:(1)辽宁省农业碳排放量呈缓慢增长的趋势,辽西北部地区为高碳排放区,中部地区为低碳排放区,碳排放量的地区差异在扩大。(2)根据公平性矩阵分类,大连市与本溪市为生态承载力系数低而经济贡献系数高的“低-高”型,葫芦岛市为“低-低”型,辽阳市由“高-高”型转变为“高-低”型,沈阳市、抚顺市、营口市以及盘锦市由“低-高”型转变为“高-高”型。(3)辽宁省农业碳排放强度主要受到农业产业结构和农业生产效率的影响,农业产业结构是影响农业碳排放强度的决定性因素,除农业从业人口外各因素对农业碳排放强度起正向驱动作用。

     

    Abstract: Based on the calculations of agricultural carbon emissions in 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning Province from 2012to 2021, this study analyzed its temporal and spatial characteristics. It evaluated the fairness of carbon emissions based on the coefficient of ecological carrying capacity and economic contribution coefficient of agricultural carbon emissions. The study used the Geo-detector tool to analyze the main factors influencing the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. The results showed that the carbon emissions from agriculture in Liaoning indicated a trend of slow growth, with the northwestern region being a high-carbonemitting area and the central region being a low-carbon-emitting area. The regional differences in carbon emissions were expanding.According to the fairness matrix classification, Dalian and Benxi cities had a low ecological carrying capacity coefficient but a high economic contribution coefficient corresponding to the "low-high" type. Huludao City fell into the "low-low" type; while Liaoyang City had changed from a "high-high" type to a "high-low" type, and Shenyang, Fushun, Yingkou, and Panjin cities had changed from "low-high" to "high-high" types. The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning was mainly affected by the agricultural industrial structure and agricultural production efficiency with the industrial structure being the decisive factor influencing the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. Apart from the agricultural workforce, all factors had a positive influence on the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.

     

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