Abstract:
In order to identify the driving factors of pollutant emission changes in different industries and scientifically formulate and adjust emission reduction policies and measures, a factor decomposition model based on energy consumption, technology, structure, and scale was constructed by using the logarithmic mean index(LMDI) decomposition method with the object of industrial source exhaust emissions in Kunming, and a quantitative decomposition model was carried out to quantify the changes and evolutionary process of exhaust pollutant emissions of industrial sources in Kunming from 2007 to 2017. The results were as follows: the total air pollutant emissions in Kunming showed a decreasing trend during the period of 2007—2017, and the energy consumption and technology factors have played a role in promoting the emission reduction of the three types of pollutants, namely sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter, but there are differences in the impacts of the drivers on the emissions of different pollutants and their extent. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we should be carried out in the areas of continuous elimination of backward production capacity, shutting down of "small scattered pollutants", energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industrial sector, clean energy substitution, analysis of emission reduction potential of the "two small and one large" industries, optimization of industrial structure, and implementation of the "chain-length system" to support the realization of industrial air pollution prevention and ambient air quality objectives in Kunming.