基于LMDI的工业源污染排放变化特征及驱动因素研究

Study on the Variation Characteristics and Driving Factors of Pollution Emissions from Industrial Sources based on LMDI

  • 摘要: 为识别不同行业污染物排放变化驱动因素、科学制定和调整减排政策措施,以昆明市工业源废气排放为对象,利用对数平均指数(LMDI)分解法构建了基于能耗、技术、结构、规模的因素分解模型,对2007—2017年昆明市工业源废气污染物排放变化情况及演进过程进行了量化分解。研究结果显示,2007—2017年昆明市大气污染物排放总量呈现减少趋势,能耗、技术因素对二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物3类污染物均起到促进减排的影响,但各驱动因素对不同污染物排放量影响及程度存在差异。“十四五”期间,应从持续淘汰落后产能、“小散乱污”关停、工业领域节能降碳、清洁能源替代、“两小一大”行业减排潜力分析、优化行业结构、实施“链长制”等方面开展工作,以支撑昆明市工业大气污染防治和环境空气质量目标实现。

     

    Abstract: In order to identify the driving factors of pollutant emission changes in different industries and scientifically formulate and adjust emission reduction policies and measures, a factor decomposition model based on energy consumption, technology, structure, and scale was constructed by using the logarithmic mean index(LMDI) decomposition method with the object of industrial source exhaust emissions in Kunming, and a quantitative decomposition model was carried out to quantify the changes and evolutionary process of exhaust pollutant emissions of industrial sources in Kunming from 2007 to 2017. The results were as follows: the total air pollutant emissions in Kunming showed a decreasing trend during the period of 2007—2017, and the energy consumption and technology factors have played a role in promoting the emission reduction of the three types of pollutants, namely sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter, but there are differences in the impacts of the drivers on the emissions of different pollutants and their extent. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we should be carried out in the areas of continuous elimination of backward production capacity, shutting down of "small scattered pollutants", energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industrial sector, clean energy substitution, analysis of emission reduction potential of the "two small and one large" industries, optimization of industrial structure, and implementation of the "chain-length system" to support the realization of industrial air pollution prevention and ambient air quality objectives in Kunming.

     

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