基于脱钩指数与LMDI的湖南省绿色低碳发展路径研究

Study on Green and Low-carbon Development Path of Hunan Province based on Decoupling Index and LMDI Model

  • 摘要: 基于湖南省2009—2019年能源平衡表,结合脱钩指数和LMDI模型分析湖南省生产-消费系统的碳排放与经济增长关系以及碳排放的5大路径(9个子路径),研究发现:居民部门碳排放年均增速是产业部门的8.8倍,生产部门80%时间处于“脱钩”状态,居民部门50%时间处于“负脱钩”状态。2019年湖南省碳排放较2009年增加4674.3万t,从效应路径看,经济活动对增排贡献最大,能源强度减排的作用最大,但子路径之间表现具有异质性;从部门路径看,交通运输、仓储和邮政业以及城镇居民部门是增排的主要路径,工业是减排的唯一路径。优化产业结构与能源结构,引导绿色消费是湖南省未来绿色低碳发展的必由路径,工业、交通运输、仓储和邮政及城镇居民部门是湖南省二氧化碳控排减排的重点部门。

     

    Abstract: Based on the 2009—2019 energy balance sheet of Hunan Province, the decoupling index and LMDI model were combined to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of the production-consumption system in Hunan Province, as well as the five paths(nine sub-paths) of carbon emissions. The research found that the average annual growth rate of carbon emissions of the residential sector was 8.8 times that of the industrial sector. The production sector was in a state of ‘decoupling' at 80% of the time,and the residential sector was in a state of ‘negative decoupling' at 50% of the time. The carbon emission of Hunan province in 2019 increased by 46.743 million tons compared with that of 2009. From the perspective of the effect path, economic activities contributed the most to the increase of emissions and the most to the reduction of energy intensity, but there was heterogeneity among the sub-paths; From the perspective of sectoral path, transportation,storage, postal and urban residential sectors were the main path to increase emissions, while industry was the only path to reduce emissions. Optimizing industrial structure and energy structure and guiding green consumption would be the necessary path for the future green and low-carbon development of Hunan Province. Industry,transportation, storage, postal service and urban residents could be the key departments of carbon dioxide emission reduction and control in Hunan Province.

     

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