基于CMIP6模式对云南2023—2060年气温及降水变化的预估

Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation in Yunnan from 2023 to 2060 based on CMIP6 model

  • 摘要: 挑选了CMIP6系列模式中对云南区域模拟效果较好的5个模式,对SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5以及SSP5-8.5情景下云南2023—2060年气温及降水变化进行预测。结果表明:①云南区域平均气温在三种排放情境下均为升高趋势;②2023—2030年三种排放情境下,云南东部气温升高幅度大于中西部;③在SSP1-2.6及SSP5-8.5情景下降水为增加趋势,在SSP2-4.5情景下降水为减少的变化趋势;④在SSP1-2.6情景下2023—2030年云南降水减少最明显的区域在西部地区,2031—2060年降水增加明显的区域在东北和西南部,在SSP2-4.5情景下2023—2030年云南西部降水减少,东部降水增加,2031—2060年云南中北部和西北部降水减少,SSP5-8.5情景下,2023—2060年云南西北部降水减少,其他地区增加。

     

    Abstract: Five models in the CMIP6 series were selected for better simulation effect in Yunnan, and the changes of temperature and precipitation in Yunnan during 2023—2060 were predicted under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that the regional mean temperature in Yunnan indicated an increasing trend under the three emission scenarios. Under the three emission scenarios from 2023 to 2030, the temperature increase of eastern Yunnan would be greater than that of central and western Yunnan.The decreasing water in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed an increasing trend, while the decreasing water in SSP2-4.5scenarios showed a decreasing trend. Under the scenario of SSP1-2.6, the western region would have the most obvious decrease in precipitation during 2023-2030, and the northeast and southwest China would have the most obvious increase in precipitation during 2031-2060. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, precipitation in western Yunnan decreased from 2023 to 2030, precipitation in eastern Yunnan increased, and precipitation in north-central and northwestern Yunnan would decrease from 2031 to 2060. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the precipitation in northwest Yunnan would decrease from 2023 to 2060, but would increase in other areas.

     

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