上海市实施国三标准柴油车提前报废补贴和限行政策的成本收益分析

Cost-benefit Analysis on the Elimination Subsidies and Traffic Restrictions Implementation of the National Ⅲ Standard Diesel Vehicles' in Shanghai

  • 摘要: 基于成本收益理论,考虑疫情影响,设定趋势照常发展(BAU)和低速稳定(LED)两种情景,分别测算上海实施国三柴油车提前报废补贴和限行政策的直接和间接影响。结果表明,BAU情景下,鼓励国三柴油车提前报废补贴政策产生单位净收益6.64万元/辆,区域限行政策产生单位净收益0.11万元/辆;LED情景下,鼓励国三柴油车提前报废补贴政策产生单位净收益5.99万元/辆,区域限行政策产生单位净收益0.05万元/辆,政策综合绩效反馈良好。实施国三柴油车提前报废报废补贴和限行政策具有促进减排和拉动产业转型双重作用。

     

    Abstract: The cost-benefit analysis method was applied to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of the implementation of national Ⅲ diesel vehicles' policies. Fully consider the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, two scenarios including business as usual(BAU)scenario and low-speed stability(LED) scenario were set based on different economic development level. The results showed that the eliminate part generated a net benefit of 66,400 yuan per vehicle and the restrict part generated a net benefit of 1,100 yuan per vehicle under the BAU scenario. While under the LED scenario, the net benefit was 59,900 yuan and 500 yuan per vehicle respectively.Viewed from the long-term and the entire social, economic and environmental system, the policies had good implementation performance. The policies promoted emission reduction and stimulating industrial transformation.

     

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