基于资源环境承载力约束的县域人口和产业调控方法研究——以云南省隆阳区为例
A Method for the Regulation of Regional Population and Industry based on the Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity:a Case Study of Longyang District,Yunnan Province
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摘要: 县域人口和产业的发展是国民社会经济发展的基本单元,科学规划其人口和产业的合理发展非常重要。资源与环境是县域人口和产业发展的物质基础,资源环境承载力不超载是其和谐发展的重大前提。基于此,本文提出一种基于资源环境承载力约束的县域人口和产业发展调控的普适方法。首先基于基准和规划模式下的人口和产业发展状况,分别建立以县域用水量控制线、污染物环境容量、耕地保有量、建设用地控制线等为约束的线性规划模型,以相关生态县创建标准及数据等为依据,确立县域合理的资源环境利用效率系数水平范围。然后基于确立的资源环境利用效率水平,建立以县域用水量控制线、污染物环境容量、耕地保有量、建设用地控制线等为约束双目标区间线性规划模型,确立县域适宜的人口和经济发展规模。决策得到的资源环境利用效率系数及适宜的人口和经济发展规模共同构成了县域社会经济发展的优化模式。基于以上理论,以云南省隆阳区为例,证实了该方法的可靠性。最终得出2020年隆阳区可承载的人口为110. 26~122. 29万人,GDP为341. 80~390. 63万元。Abstract: It is very important to scientifically plan the development of population and industry,because county level is a basic unit for national economic and social development. Resources and environment is the material basis for the development of population and industry. The major premise of harmonious development between them is that the resources and environmental carrying capacity is non-overloading. So this paper tried to put forward a universal method for the regulation of regional population and industry based on the resources and environmental carrying capacity. First of all,the many linear programming models respectively were built by constraints of water consumption,pollutants environment capacity,cultivated and construction land area,etc. Based on the benchmark and planning mode of population and industry development,reasonable level of resources and environment efficiency coefficients were established referred to relevant standards and data (such as eco-counties create standards).Then,an interval bi-objective programming model was built to establish the suitable size of population and economic development based on the resources and environment efficiency coefficients. The resources and environment efficiency coefficient and the suitable size of population and economic development constituted the optimization model of regional social and economic development. Based on the above theory,the reliability of this method was confirmed with an example of Longyang district,Yunnan province. The total amount of the population and GDP successively could be controlled within the range of 1. 1026-1. 2229 million people,341. 80-390. 63 million Yuan,respectively.
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